Who Will Be the Next Pope – Candidates, Conclave Rules and Timeline

The 2025 papal conclave to elect Pope Francis’s successor began on May 7 in the Sistine Chapel, involving approximately 120 voting cardinals under age 80. With roughly 80 percent of electors appointed by Francis himself, the outcome remains deeply uncertain—pitting reform continuity against a potential conservative course correction. No clear frontrunner has emerged, and the secretive nature of the proceedings ensures that speculation will persist until white smoke rises from the chapel chimney.

The College of Cardinals faces an unprecedented composition: the largest eligible electorate in modern history, heavily weighted toward Francis’s preferred candidates yet still harboring significant conservative opposition. Observers note that the adage “he who enters as pope leaves as cardinal” underscores how unpredictable these gatherings remain despite extensive pre-conclave maneuvering.

This explainer covers the leading papabile candidates, the mechanics of papal election, the timeline of recent and upcoming events, and the factors that could shape the church’s direction for generations to come.

Who Are the Leading Candidates to Be the Next Pope?

The field of papabile—Italian for “pope-able”—spans continents, ideologies, and generations. Sources tracking conclave chatter and betting markets identify several figures who consistently appear near the top of lists, though Vatican watchers caution that favorites rarely prevail. Here is a snapshot of the most frequently mentioned cardinals heading into the 2025 conclave.

Essential Overview

Key Insights on Papal Succession

• Francis appointed approximately 80 percent of eligible voters, heavily favoring pastoral leaders from Africa, Asia, and Latin America.
• The electorate of roughly 138 cardinals under 80 represents the largest conclave pool in modern history.
• A potential non-European pope would mark a historic first, as recent popes have come from Poland, Germany, and Argentina.
• Betting odds and Vatican sources point to Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin and Matteo Zuppi as frontrunners among moderates.
• Conservative kingmakers are weighing Hungarian Cardinal Peter Erdo and Guinean Cardinal Robert Sarah as alternatives to Francis’s vision.
• Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle has emerged as a progressive favorite, potentially becoming the first Asian pope.
• Pre-conclave rumors proliferate, but secrecy rules mean misinformation spreads easily before and during the gathering.

Papabile Candidate Comparison

Additional figures drawing attention include Congolese Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, Italian Fernando Filoni, Maltese Mario Grech, and US Cardinals Joseph Tobin and Robert Prevost. Past contender Angelo Scola also remains in discussions, though observers consider his prospects diminished after the 2013 surprise election of Francis.

How Is a New Pope Chosen?

The papal election process, unchanged in its essentials for centuries, combines ancient ritual with strict procedural rules designed to ensure secrecy, legitimacy, and spiritual discernment.

The Conclave Ceremony

When the papal seat becomes vacant through death or resignation, the College of Cardinals convenes in Vatican City. Cardinals who have reached their 80th birthday are barred from voting, leaving only those under that age threshold eligible to participate. The electors gather in the Sistine Chapel, where they swear an oath of absolute secrecy before proceedings begin.

According to coverage from NCR and Time, the conclave operates under a detailed rule book and prayer book, with ceremonies conducted entirely in Latin. External contact is prohibited; the cardinals are effectively sequestered until a decision emerges.

Voting Requirements

A candidate must receive support from two-thirds of the participating cardinals to be elected pope. The Irish Times notes that after prolonged voting rounds, rules permit a shift to a simple majority in exceptionally large conclaves, though this remains rare in practice.

The Smoke Signals

Ballots are counted and burned after each round. When straw and chemicals are added to the burning ballots, white smoke rises from the Sistine Chapel chimney, signaling that a new pope has been chosen. If the ballots burn without the additive, black smoke indicates no decision has been reached. This centuries-old visual communication method allows the gathered faithful in St. Peter’s Square to learn the outcome in real time.

When Will the Next Papal Conclave Happen?

The 2025 conclave commenced on May 7, following the death of Pope Francis that triggered the succession process. Vatican protocols require the conclave to begin between 15 and 20 days after the papal vacancy, allowing time for preparatory meetings known as general congregations.

Pre-Conclave Activities

In the weeks leading up to the conclave, over 70 speeches were delivered during general congregation meetings, addressing the church’s pressing needs and challenges. These sessions involve cardinals both under and over 80 years of age, though only the younger cohort holds voting rights. Religion News reported extensive deliberation on issues ranging from institutional reform to geopolitical tensions affecting Catholic communities worldwide.

Duration Expectations

Modern conclaves typically last between two and four days. However, history offers stark reminders of unpredictability: the 1268–1271 conclave in Viterbo stretched across nearly three years, with cardinals reportedly locked in their quarters and even having the roof tiles removed to encourage consensus. The shortest modern conclave elected John Paul I in 1978 after just one day of voting.

What Makes a Cardinal Papabile?

The term papabile simply describes a cardinal considered capable of becoming pope, but the qualities that attract serious consideration extend far beyond name recognition. Vatican observers and insiders emphasize a combination of pastoral experience, theological depth, administrative skill, and global vision.

Qualities Cardinals Seek

A papabile typically demonstrates proven leadership as a bishop or archbishop, often overseeing large dioceses or important sees such as major cities or ancient patriarchates. Theological orthodoxy balanced with practical pragmatism matters, as does the ability to navigate complex institutional dynamics. International experience and fluency in multiple languages rank highly in a church increasingly centered outside Europe.

Age plays a dual role. While the youngest eligible cardinals under 80 include figures like Pizzaballa (60) and Mendonça (59)—whose profiles suggest long papacies ahead—the perceived disadvantage of inexperience can undermine candidacies. Conversely, candidates approaching the 80-year threshold bring gravitas but risk being passed over for someone expected to serve a longer term.

The Role of Kingmakers

Beyond declared candidates, influential cardinals shape outcomes through private conversations and coalition-building. Figures such as Jean-Claude Hollerich of Luxembourg and Raymond Burke of the United States are frequently mentioned as kingmakers who can marshal support for particular candidates, even if they do not seek the papacy themselves. Blog coverage of conclave dynamics suggests these behind-the-scenes actors may prove decisive in a contested election.

Recent Papal Succession Timeline

Understanding the 2025 conclave requires context for recent papal transitions, which reveal patterns of continuity and surprising choices that challenge conventional wisdom.

1. 1978: Albino Luciani elected John Paul I in August; died 33 days later, triggering rapid second conclave that elected Karol Wojtyła as John Paul II.
2. 2005: Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger elected Benedict XVI after John Paul II’s death; Ratzinger had been the obvious frontrunner.
3. 2013: Jorge Mario Bergoglio elected Francis in a widely unexpected outcome, defeating presumed leader Angelo Scola.
4. 2025: Conclave convenes following Francis’s death, with the largest and most geographically diverse electorate in history.

The pattern of surprises—particularly the 2013 election of Francis over established favorites—underscores why betting odds and insider speculation prove unreliable predictors. The secrecy surrounding actual deliberations ensures that the cardinals’ true deliberations remain hidden until decades later, when archives open to historians.

Known Facts Versus Remaining Uncertainty

Covering papal succession requires distinguishing between established information grounded in official sources and speculation that, however prominent, remains fundamentally unverifiable.

Why Papal Succession Matters Beyond the Vatican

The selection of a new pope carries implications extending far beyond Catholic doctrine or institutional appointments. The papacy occupies a unique position as a global moral authority, and the church’s 1.3 billion members span every continent and nearly every nation.

Francis’s pontificate emphasized outreach to the poor, climate advocacy, and diplomatic engagement with nations ranging from Cuba to China. A successor leaning toward conservative retrenchment would signal different priorities on these issues. Similarly, the geographic origin of the new pope matters: a pontiff from Africa or Asia would acknowledge the church’s growth in the Global South while potentially shifting diplomatic attention toward those regions.

The political dimension also affects non-Catholics. The Vatican’s longstanding diplomatic relations with over 180 countries, its presence in international organizations, and its role in addressing humanitarian crises mean that the pope’s profile shapes global discourse on issues including poverty, migration, armed conflict, and religious freedom.

Locally, Catholic communities in Europe and North America grapple with declining attendance and institutional relevance, while churches in Africa and parts of Asia experience growth. The next pope must navigate these divergent trajectories while addressing internal debates over liturgy, sexuality, and the role of women in church governance.

Expert Perspectives and Source Credibility

Reporting on papal succession draws from multiple categories of sources, each with distinct reliability and perspective.

“He who enters as pope leaves as cardinal.”

— Vatican proverb reflecting conclave unpredictability

Primary sources include official Vatican communications, the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith, and the Secretariat of State. These provide authoritative information on rules and procedures but offer no insight into deliberations.

Journalistic coverage from outlets including NCR, Time Magazine, The Irish Times, and Religion News offers contextual analysis and candidate profiles, though these remain derivative of public statements and historical knowledge rather than inside access.

Betting platforms and rumor networks generate significant attention but prove notoriously unreliable. The secrecy surrounding actual deliberations ensures that no external source can verify claims about candidate support or factional negotiations. Blog coverage aggregates much of this speculation but acknowledges the prevalence of misinformation circulating before and during conclaves.

What Comes Next for the Catholic Church

Regardless of who emerges from the Sistine Chapel as pope, the Catholic Church faces a period of significant transition. Francis’s decade-plus pontificate reshaped the church’s public image and diplomatic positioning, but institutional tensions remain unresolved.

The next pope will inherit ongoing debates about the liturgy, the handling of clergy sexual abuse, the church’s stance on same-sex relationships, the role of women in ministry, and the relationship between Vatican authority and local bishops’ conferences. These fault lines map onto the reform-continuity tensions animating the current conclave.

Demographic shifts compound these challenges. While Catholic populations grow in Africa and Asia, European churches face aging congregations and closing parishes. North American and South American churches navigate political polarization and declining cultural authority. The next pope must address these realities while maintaining the church’s theological coherence across vastly different cultural contexts.

For observers worldwide—Catholic and otherwise—the conclave represents a rare moment of transparency about how one of the world’s oldest institutions makes consequential decisions. Whatever the outcome, the process itself offers insight into the unique blend of tradition, secrecy, and spiritual discernment that characterizes the papacy.

Frequently Asked Questions